James Godwin Reporting
The Champions League’s inaugural league phase is set for an exciting final day with 25 of the 36 teams still awaiting their fate.
All 18 games will be played at the same time – at 20:00 GMT on Wednesday, with 16 matches having something on the line.
Manchester City are in major danger of elimination after last week’s 4-2 defeat at Paris St-Germain, while Liverpool are through, Arsenal are almost there and Aston Villa and Celtic – who meet – are somewhere in between.
The ‘as it stands’ table will be constantly updating with teams’ hopes potentially relying on other results.
It marks the first season of the new format, a change from the old four-team groups with two going through from each – where sometimes there was nothing to play for by the end.
“It’s been brilliant, instead of the borefest we’ve had for years on the last matchday,” wrote ex-Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher on social media.
How many teams qualify for the knockout phase?
First, here’s a reminder of what the 36 league-phase teams are aiming for.
Those finishing in the top eight automatically progress to the last 16, where they will be seeded.
They will await the winners of eight two-legged knockout play-off ties featuring the clubs ranked from ninth to 24th.
Those finishing between ninth and 16th will be seeded and face a team placed 17th to 24th, with the advantage of playing the second leg at home.
The clubs 25th or lower are eliminated and do not gain entry to the Europa League.
The play-off ties take place in mid-February, with the last-16 matches in the first two weeks of March.
Which teams have qualified – and who is out?
Top-eight guaranteed: Liverpool, Barcelona
Top-24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic
Uncertain of progression: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar Donetsk
Eliminated: Bologna, Sparta Prague, Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys.
winner of the ties involving teams that finish in those four places.
Liverpool cannot face the team who finishes second in the league phase – or whoever finishes top if they are overtaken on the final matchday – until the final.
By contrast, a team who finish seventh or eighth could face a side that had finished just below them in the league phase – in ninth or 10th.
For more on who faces who in the play-offs, keep reading…
What is the difference between finishing ninth and 24th?
Teams that finish between ninth and 16th will be seeded in the knockout phase play-off draw.
It means they will face a team that finishes between 17th to 24th.
Who the seeded teams will face will be determined by a draw but clubs will only have two possible opponents.
For example, the teams who finish 11th and 12th are paired together and will play a team that finishes 21st or 22nd.
Another bracket will pair the teams who finish ninth and 10th in the table, playing either the team that was 23rd or 24th.
The two pairs of fixtures will be drawn into opposite halves of the overall draw and the seeded teams will play the second leg of the play-off at home as a reward for finishing higher than their opponent in the league phase.
Unlike in previous years, teams eliminated from the Champions League – either in the group phase or via losing a play-off – will not drop into the Europa League.
The draw for the play-off round is on Friday at 11:00 GMT.
Who has the best chance of qualifying?
Opta has given its predictions for who will reach the play-offs and the last 16.
It uses computer modelling software to look at form, opponents and potential seedings to come up with percentage chances.
The table makes interesting reading. Celtic, for example, are regarded as 100% likely to finish in the play-offs – the Opta computer ruling they will not beat Aston Villa by the required goal difference to finish higher.
Real Madrid are given a lower likelihood of finishing in the play-offs than Celtic – as Opta believes they could still force their way into the top eight.