As President Muhammadu Buhari has launched the redesigned naira notes,a political stakeholder, former senator representing southern senatorial zone from 1992-1993, and a certified Chattered Accountant Senator Patrick Ani has taken another look at the Redesigned currency.
“If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don’t try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss.”
1). So many Nigerians have stacked Naira notes in their closets and are cut up with this policy of the CBN. There is a rush by ignorant Nigerians to convert their Naira to Dollars. Naira is at all time low against dollar and it’s going to go even lower. For example a man converts #10m to 12,500 USD at the current exchange rate. It’s easier to keep it with himself than to deposit in a Domiciliary account with a DMB because of the stringent policies around FX cash deposits. He hopes that by December when the new Nigeria is floated, he’d have his FX converted back to Naira from the Aboki guys he bought his USD from.
2)The Aboki man who sold FX to his customers at exorbitant rate excitedly goes to the DMB to deposit the millions of Naira he got the the FX swap he did. He knows he is getting richer in geometric proportion by this new policy by the CBN. He awaits the printing of the new Naira notes so as to reconvert the Naira he has in his account today USD and continue making more money.
3). All customers who deposited their Naira notes, those depositing and those who would be depositing are eagerly waiting for December 15. The DMBs are also waiting for the said date. Meanwhile there is a cashless policy waiting to hit all Nigerians by January 2023. On December 15th, customers would rush to the DMBs for new notes so as to withdraw as much as they can before January when the cashless policy would be effected 100%. The DMBS would rush to the central bank branches to withdraw new notes. The branches would go to the H/O for new notes. H/O would release just a little to branches based on cash management policies. CBN Branches would release in trinkets to DMB branches and tell them to go manage their customers. DMBs would revert back to their customers based on the low available new cash notes. There would be slight panicking as customers who deposited old naira notes cannot retrieve same notes from the DMBs anymore because of unavailability. Remember, digital money and paper money is still money and so customers would be advised to use electronic channels to make payments.
4) The Aboki guy who kept millions of Naira is also a victim of the shortage of new notes and so he cannot buy back FX from his customers who were hoping to return the ones the got earlier ones the new notes are in place. Aboki begins to panick as well. Those who have FX and need naira notes begin to sell their FX to people who have naira whether old or new just to cash in before January. In doing so, USD begins to crash as rapidly as it rose. Much of the FX becomes deposited in DMBs as carrying the raw cash isn’t useful anymore. The CBN is happy because there is more FX in the banking system to give for Forms A, M and Q. Naira begins to gain rapidly against the dollar.
5). In January, cashless policy takes effect. So even if the CBN makes available more new notes to DMBs, customers cannot withdraw above the stipulated across-the-counter limit to avoid heavy charges. Customers are forced to use electronic payments, FX policy and transfer and withdrawal is so stiff that swapping FX and Naira is no more a gain. USD parallel and black market prices crash all the way down to CBN rate. Inflation based on importation of goods and services is checked as Naira becomes strong against dollar. People who have physical dollars would lose. There would be limited access to naira notes as electronic transfers become prevalent. Enaira purchases also become more as Nigerians look for most seamless methods to do payments. By June, whoever takes over power would have a soft landing as this policy by the CBN has controlled a whole lot of inflation, corruption and economic degradation.
6). If you have Naira notes stashed with you, return them back to the bank through your account. Don’t try to play smart trying to beat the system, you may become the architect of your own loss. Your 12,500 USD may fall from #10,000,000 to #5,000,000 in June, 2023. Meanwhile if you put same #10,000,000 in Treasury Bills at the current 14.5%, you should be gaining about #725,000 at the same period.
Let’s try and look at the bright side of things, Nigeria shall be great by God’s grace.
