Toba Owojaiye reporting
Abuja, Nigeria
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its economic growth forecast for Nigeria in 2025 to 3.0%, a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from its earlier projection of 3.2%. This revision is attributed primarily to declining global crude oil prices, which continue to undermine Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
Truth Live News gathered that the updated projection was detailed in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), unveiled during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington, DC.
According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economic prospects are being dampened by lower fiscal revenues, rising debt service obligations, and persistent inflationary pressures. The report also noted Nigeria’s continued struggle with currency instability and foreign exchange shortages.
“Among the larger economies, the growth forecast for Nigeria is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2025 and 0.3 percentage point for 2026, owing to lower oil prices,” the report stated.
Key Numbers at a Glance:
Inflation Rate (Feb 2025): 31.3% (highest since 1996)
Exchange Rate (as of April 2025): N1,520/$ at the official window
Oil Production (Q1 2025): 1.35 million barrels per day (mbpd), far below the OPEC quota of 1.8mbpd
Public Debt (2024): Over N97 trillion, with debt service-to-revenue ratio exceeding 80%
Unemployment Rate: Estimated at 5.0% in 2024, though underemployment remains high
The IMF also revised growth projections for the broader sub-Saharan African region. Growth is expected to taper slightly from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, with a modest rebound to 4.2% in 2026.
“Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decelerate slightly, reflecting external shocks, constrained fiscal space, and fragile security environments in parts of the region,” the IMF noted.
Other major African economies also faced downward revisions:
South Africa: Revised down by 0.5 percentage point for 2025, now projected at 0.9%, due to poor power supply, policy uncertainty, and a sluggish investment climate.
South Sudan: Suffered the most drastic revision, with a 31.5 percentage point cut in its 2025 forecast due to severe delays in oil production resumption after a key pipeline rupture.
Meanwhile, the IMF’s global economic forecast remains cautious. World output is projected at 3.2% in 2025, with advanced economies growing at 1.8% and emerging markets at 4.2%. The global oil price is expected to average $72 per barrel in 2025, down from $85 in 2024, a major concern for oil-exporting nations like Nigeria.
As Nigeria continues its economic reform efforts, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange liberalization, the IMF has urged authorities to improve tax collection, enhance public financial management, and tackle structural bottlenecks to unlock inclusive growth.