Nigeria’s statistics agency has announced plans to revise how it reports inflation, following concerns that December’s year-on-year figure may be artificially high due to changes in how prices are measured.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the expected surge in December inflation does not reflect real price movements in the economy, but is largely the result of a technical distortion caused by a recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The rebasing exercise, the first in 15 years adopted December 2024 as the new reference point for measuring inflation. Officials say this change is likely to exaggerate the year-on-year inflation figure for December, without accurately capturing current market trends.
Inflation data for December is due to be released on Thursday, with analysts forecasting a rise in the headline rate to around 30%, up from 14.45% in November. However, the NBS has cautioned against interpreting such projections as a true reflection of inflationary pressure.
“The widely reported 30% figure for December is only a projection and does not come from the bureau,” said Ayo Anthony, Head of Prices at the NBS.
Mr Anthony explained that Nigeria’s inflation rate peaked at nearly 35% in December 2024 before easing following the rebasing exercise and a slowdown in food price increases.
“This spike is not the real inflation rate. It is an artificial increase caused by the base effect from rebasing,” he said.
To address the distortion, the NBS said it would replace the single-month reference period with a 12-month reference period for 2024. The move is intended to provide a more accurate and credible picture of inflation trends.
“We are removing the single-month index reference period and replacing it with a 12-month reference period to reflect actual inflation,” Mr Anthony added.
He said that while countries such as South Africa and Kenya use a single-month base, Nigeria’s volatile price environment makes that approach less suitable.
Nigeria last rebased its inflation data in 2009. According to the NBS, the long gap between rebasing exercises has contributed to the sharp base effects now being observed.
Bonaventure Nwosu, Head of Communications at the bureau, said any spike seen in December’s data would be a one-off.
“From January 2026, inflation figures will normalise and better reflect actual market conditions,” he said.
The statistics agency said the revised methodology would help provide a clearer and more reliable picture of inflationary pressures in Africa’s most populous nation.
