A deadly rivalry between Boko Haram factions Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati Wal-Jihad (JAS) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) has erupted into fierce clashes, claiming numerous lives and spilling beyond the Lake Chad region into Nigeria’s North West and North Central zones. The intensifying conflict, fueled by ideological rifts and territorial ambitions, has deepened the chaos in an already volatile security landscape.
Intelligence sources briefed Zagazola Makama, a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad Region, revealing that “the renewed hostilities stem from ideological and territorial disputes,” with ISWAP advocating for stringent Islamic governance while JAS clings to a localized insurgency model. Efforts to bridge this divide faltered when Bakura Doro, alias Abu Ummaima, penned a plea for negotiations to ISWAP’s Shura Council. “The effort collapsed, leading to more violent engagements,” sources confirmed, dashing hopes of reconciliation and igniting a fresh wave of bloodshed.
The violence has surged beyond its traditional epicenter, infiltrating the North West and North Central regions, where extremist factions now grapple with local bandits for control of smuggling routes, recruitment pools, and community allegiance. In Niger State, Bakura-led JAS cells from Kwarangal, Ali Mondula, and Libi Soro are dispatching trained fighters—15 at a time—under lieutenant Mallam Bara to bolster Saddiku’s camps. Their target: Dogo Gide, a former Boko Haram ally turned renegade warlord who has vowed to shield locals from both JAS and ISWAP incursions. “Dogo Gide has since vowed to protect local communities from Boko Haram and ISWAP attacks,” sources noted, highlighting his clashes with JAS in Madawaki and Allawa, which have further muddied the conflict’s waters.
Meanwhile, JAS is plotting a strategic escalation. Intelligence warns of a high-level meeting set for February 22–23 in Toumbun Allura, Abadam LGA, aimed at coordinating assaults on military and ISWAP targets. “The meeting is expected to bring together senior militant leaders from Niger, Chad, and Cameroon,” sources disclosed, signaling a multinational push that could amplify the threat. In the Lake Chad Basin, JAS has seized dismantled ISWAP camps, stoking fears of imminent strikes on military outposts.
The collapse of peace talks has supercharged hostilities, yet this internal strife might inadvertently aid counterterrorism efforts. “The failed peace talks between JAS and ISWAP have led to intensified hostilities, which may paradoxically weaken both groups and create opportunities for counterterrorism forces to exploit their divisions,” analysts told Makama. As the factions bleed each other dry, security forces could find openings to dismantle their fractured networks.
For communities caught in the crossfire—from Lake Chad’s shores to Niger State’s hinterlands—the toll is mounting. The rivalry’s westward creep pits extremists against bandits in a scramble for dominance, leaving civilians vulnerable to escalating violence and resource wars. Dogo Gide’s defiance adds a wildcard, splitting loyalties and complicating military responses. As JAS regroups and ISWAP resists, Nigeria braces for a turbulent chapter in its long fight against insurgency, with the specter of coordinated attacks looming large.