The looming fiscal cliff confronting Nigeria today is not an abstract economic concept, it is a lived and worsening reality for millions of citizens already stretched beyond endurance. The Tinubu administration’s handling of tax reforms and fiscal coordination has exposed a troubling pattern of haste, opacity, and institutional disconnect. What was meant to be a carefully sequenced overhaul of the tax regime has instead degenerated into a quagmire of uncertainty, allegedly warped legislative processes, and implementation confusion, with a commencement date that arrived before consensus, clarity, or credibility were secured. This is not merely a technical failure, it is a governance lapse with profound social consequences.
That this crisis has unfolded under the watch of Bola Tinubu, an accountant by training and a leader long marketed as an economist, makes the situation even more perplexing and disappointing. One would reasonably expect prudence, coordination, and respect for process to define fiscal policy under such stewardship. Instead, critical stakeholders across sectors have raised alarms about the distortions and contradictions embedded in the tax framework, warnings that appear to have been treated as inconveniences rather than red flags. When fiscal reforms are pursued without broad buy-in or legislative coherence, they cease to be reforms and become instruments of instability.
The human cost of this mismanagement is impossible to ignore. Despite repeated assurances of economic gains since last year, the lived experience of the poor and working masses tells a far harsher story. Inflation remains punitive, purchasing power continues to erode, and small businesses struggle under policy uncertainty and rising compliance burdens. Disturbingly, as of December 2025, the country was reportedly still operating on the 2024 budget, an extraordinary situation that underscores fiscal drift and weak planning. For a nation facing acute social stress, budgetary inertia is not a neutral delay; it is a multiplier of suffering.
For those of us who care deeply about the fate of ordinary Nigerians, this moment demands more than technocratic excuses and optimistic projections. Fiscal policy must be anchored in realism, legality, and empathy, not experimentation at the expense of the vulnerable. A nation cannot tax its way out of hardship through confusion and coercion, nor can it promise prosperity while presiding over policy chaos. What is required now is a sober reset, transparent legislative engagement, and an urgent re-centring of economic governance around the dignity and survival of the Nigerian masses, without which any claimed economic progress remains hollow and morally indefensible.
*Dcn. Amb Darlington Okpebholo Ray*