The United Nations has warned that global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record highs over the next five years, with a strong likelihood that a new hottest year on record could occur before 2031.
In its latest climate outlook released on Thursday, May 28, 2026, the World Meteorological Organisation said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
The agency noted that the 11 hottest years in recorded history have all occurred since 2015, signalling a worsening climate trend driven largely by greenhouse gas emissions.
According to the WMO, there is a 75 per cent probability that the average global temperature for the 2026–2030 period will exceed the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
The warning comes as western Europe experiences extreme heat conditions caused by a “heat dome,” with Britain and France already recording unusually high temperatures for May.
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the agency stated.
“It is likely, with an 86 per cent chance, that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.”
The WMO also projected that an El Niño weather pattern could emerge towards the end of 2026, increasing the chances of 2027 becoming another record-breaking year.
Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Climate Update, said the climate phenomenon would further intensify global warming trends.
The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year ever recorded, while 2024 became the hottest year on record at about 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate event characterised by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, often disrupting global weather patterns, rainfall and wind systems.
The WMO said annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are projected to range from 1.3 degrees Celsius to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
The report also stated that there is a 91 per cent chance that at least one year within the period will temporarily exceed the 1.5-degree threshold.
However, scientists noted that the Paris Agreement targets refer to long-term warming averages over decades, meaning temporary breaches do not necessarily indicate failure to meet global climate goals.
The report further warned that Arctic temperatures during the next five northern hemisphere winters are expected to rise by about 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average, more than three times the projected global temperature increase for the same period.
It also forecast wetter conditions in regions such as the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, while drier conditions are expected across the Amazon region.
The report was produced by the WMO in collaboration with Britain’s Met Office and compiled climate forecasts from 13 international institutes.
AFP